A ‘vicious circle of higher spend and poorer outcomes’ for looked after children

An extra 10,000 will be in care by end of decade if we don’t act, say county councils
Doom loop

The number of young people in in children’s homes and supported living has risen by 45 per cent to 15,403 since 2019 in England – and is expected to rise by a similar amount by the end of the decade.

The warning comes in a report from the County Council Network (CNN) which predicts spending on looked after children will double to £12 billion by 2030, with 10,000 more overall entering the care system by then without action.

It says a “flatlining” of foster placements in local areas means more children are being placed in children’s homes and semi-independent accommodation far from where they live.

Cllr Roger Gough, children’s services spokesperson for CCN, said: “This report should act as a turning point for children’s services in England. 

“It finds a system broken, with councils in the false economy of increasingly paying astronomical sums for placements and less on preventative services.

“But the biggest losers from the current system are young people themselves, with far too many children being placed many miles from home at a time when they are experiencing the trauma of being removed from their family.

“If we carry on as we are currently almost 10,000 extra young people could end up in care by the end of the decade, at an enormous cost for both young people and local taxpayers. It will leave us locked into a vicious circle of higher spend and poorer outcomes.”

The number of young people in children’s homes, secure units and supported living accommodation in England was 10,050 in 2019 and currently stands at 15,403. CNN predicts this will rise to 22,533 by 2030.

Latest figures show a third – 4,610 children – were placed more than 20 miles from where they live last year, a rise of 18 per cent since 2019.

And though the overall number of looked after children in England fell by 0.5 per cent this year, it has gone up seven per cent since 2019 to 83,630. CNN forecasts it will rise another 9.6 per cent by the end of the decade to 93,000.

In its report, The Way We Care, the CNN calls for a shift of focus to prevention and early help services to reverse the trend.

It urges the government to invest the £2.6 billion on family help recommended in the 2022 Independent Review of Children’s Social Care (IRCSC).

The previous government only committed £200 million towards reforms, largely on a rollout of a series of pilots to test new ways of working.

IRCSC chair Josh MacAlister called on the government to go further. Writing in wake of the government's response to his review, he said: “Taking transformational action now will cost money – £2.6 billion over four years – but it will save the taxpayer soon after.”

Councils in England spent £6.6 billion on looked after children last year. The overall spend on children’s social care was £12.8 billion. This is also forecast to rise dramatically by the end of the decade to £21.4 billion.

Last week, the government announced a £250 million Children’s Social Care Prevention Grant will be made available to local authorities designed, said deputy prime minister Angela Rayner, "to help ensure children stay with their families or in safe loving homes where possible".

Andy Smith, president of the Association of Directors of Children's Services said the funding was "in recognition of the significant pressures faced by too many children and families" as well as the pressure on children's social care services.

Speaking at the National Children and Adults Services conference he said children services are now "routinely" helping families with their rent under section 17 duties of the Children Act 1989 to keep them together. 

The Local Government Association said rising need associated with mental health and domestic abuse is also increasing pressure on children’s social care.